Page 1 of 4 1 2 3 4 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 32

Thread: Cheltenham festival 2017

  1. #1

    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Location
    At home. Unless I'm out...
    Posts
    807
    Thanks
    1,118
    Been Thanked: 1,815 Times

    Default Cheltenham festival 2017

    Not everybody's cup of tea I will give you, but in just under two weeks time the greatest national hunt meeting in the world begins. In the lead up I will give my thoughts and opinions on the bigger races. If anybody else has any info please post it here. I will start with the 4 championship races and start from there

    With the news that Faugheen and Annie Power will not be in attendance and with doubts over whether thistlecrack will make it, two of the championship races have cut up and suddenly become very open. i will give my impression of the champion hurdle and gold cup in this post

    Tuesday 14th Champion Hurdle

    Limini beat Apples jade and has been supplemented for this race (not a decision taken lightly as I think it costs about 10k to supplement the horse). Now that was a mares race and Annie power was the only girl to beat the boys in years so I don't think we can read too much into that win. As it stands the general consensus is that she has a 22% chance (9/2) of winning this race. Terrible price and I think completely wrong. Nicky Henderson has buveir d'aire and Brain Power in the race buveir d'aire has been well found and is about 7/2 however Henderson was very bullish about brain power and is available at 7/1. Yanworth seems to have untapped potential with Barry Geraghty never having pushed him really hard and is joint favourite. Petite Muchoir will struggle, vroum vroum mag will go for the mares hurdle, and jezki will more than likely go for the stayers hurdle. Tombstone would be very interesting if supplemented but there are a couple of older horses at bigger prices which hold solid place claims. The new one 14/1, never won at Cheltenham but is a more than capable hurdler with the drive to fight out the minor honours. Nichols Canyon 16/1 is the best horse in the race on form and is the only horse to beat faugheen. 16/1 seems big and is a viable eachway play I doubt he will be that on the day, Ruby will more than likely ride Limini meaning NC could fly under the radar. My tent or yours can fight out a place having been beaten a length by jezki a few years ago. Of the others in the race Moon Racer will go for the supreme, foot pad could be a surprise package and nothing else stands out as having a chance.

    Friday 17th Gold Cup

    With thistlecrack out this years good thing is not a good thing. (Not that there ever are good things but thistlecrack was a stag and embarrassed many a good horse). Thistlecracks non participation brings a greater depth to the race. Cue Card has once again garnered support but I don't think he likes Cheltenham and may not get round. The horse I do like is Native River a relentless galloper and a very good jumper. Next we have djakadam for willie mullins, runner up in this race twice. Always the bridesmaid springs to mind and would appear to be destined for minor honours again. Of the other Irish contenders outlander has claims based on his thyestes win but I think empire of dirt is the best of the gigginstown contenders. Originally aimed at the grand national but the spat between the O'learys and the handicapper makes his participation doubtful and the gold cup an appealing target. The best clue as to which is actually the better mule is to see which one Bryan coopers opts to ride. Minella Rocco beat native river over 4 miles here last year and the extended 3 miles may be a bit sharp for him but he is an attractive each way price.

    In my opinion this is a weak gold cup due to the non participation of thistlecrack, Don Cossack and many clouds (rip). It may be a weak renewal but it should be an interesting race.

    I will put up the champion chase and stayers hurdle when I get a chance
    First completed grow Timbos second attempt sour diesel auto
    Second completed grow Timbo goes critical
    Third completed grow - Rhino hunting on green crack

  2. The Following User Says Thank You to Timbo287 For This Useful Post:

    Ginger-bud (03-03-17)

  3. #2

    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Location
    At home. Unless I'm out...
    Posts
    807
    Thanks
    1,118
    Been Thanked: 1,815 Times

    Default

    Wednesday 15th champion chase

    Douvan, Douvan, Douvan. One of the best horses in training and one of the best that Ricci has ever owned. I was at Cheltenham last year when Douvan breezed up in the Arkle after having everything beat after the first half mile. He is very short but based on what he has done previously will probably be even shorter on the day. The best option for us would be to look at something to place or in the without Douvan market. Altior will go for the arkle this is a championship race which will be run at champion pace, tough ask for a novice. I expect him to be back to have a crack at Douvan next year. Fox norton an interesting horse for tizzard has course form after having won nicely on New Year's Day, gods own has claims and sire de grugy would be a welcome horse in the winners enclosure. However further down the field we have Tell us More. Recently moved to Elliot from Mullins he beat the game changer in a grade 3. Now we're going to have to take his fitness on trust as he hasn't run since November but Elliott can get one ready and 2miles on decent ground seems ideal. All we have to worry about is the hill but with a line through the game changer he is good enough to fill the minor honours.

  4. The Following User Says Thank You to Timbo287 For This Useful Post:

    Ginger-bud (03-03-17)

  5. #3
    The Aspie Toker Guest

    Default


  6. The Following User Says Thank You to The Aspie Toker For This Useful Post:

    Timbo287 (03-03-17)

  7. #4

    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Location
    At home. Unless I'm out...
    Posts
    807
    Thanks
    1,118
    Been Thanked: 1,815 Times

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by The Aspie Toker View Post
    Hahahahahaha that's still funny. Peter Cook and Dudley Moore are legends

  8. The Following User Says Thank You to Timbo287 For This Useful Post:


  9. #5

    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    cheshire
    Posts
    2,152
    Thanks
    4,021
    Been Thanked: 5,201 Times

    Default

    if its not irish dont back it.

  10. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to happyjack For This Useful Post:

    Timbo287 (03-03-17)

  11. #6

    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Location
    At home. Unless I'm out...
    Posts
    807
    Thanks
    1,118
    Been Thanked: 1,815 Times

    Default

    Thursday 16th Stayers Hurdle

    Unowhatimeanharry heads the market but at the prices is far too short. Admittedly he has beaten everything in his path and the news that Geraghty is out for the festival means he will get a different (better)* jockey and is a very worthy favourite. This is another race that the betting without market may prove fruitful. I think there is good claims for place money for former winner Cole Harden, he is getting on but he does stay. shaneshill is of interest for Mullins but he has a habit of rerouting horses at the last minute. He was hinting earlier this week that vroum vroum mag could go for the champion hurdle. If Ballyoptic turns up in the right frame of mind he could be involved, he has course form and was beaten by unowhatimeanharry on his latest start. The ground was soft that day and with firmer conditions he could fill a place spot I can't see him reversing the form. The other horse I like is Zarkander, he lost his way over fences but has seemed a different beast now back over timber. He will have to come on an awful lot to get near the favourite.

    * I personally think Barry Geraghty was and still is a great jockey, but he seems to have lost his drive the past year and has messed up a couple of steering jobs in Ireland. It's probably me talking through my pocket but I'm not sure if he is the same man/jockey with the passion as he was a few years ago.

  12. #7

    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Location
    At home. Unless I'm out...
    Posts
    807
    Thanks
    1,118
    Been Thanked: 1,815 Times

    Default

    I've been looking through the rest of the cards so far for Cheltenham and at the minute the fields are still too big to give any meaningful analysis/ thoughts. The championship races are easy and can start to be worked out shortly after New Year's Day after the Christmas meetings have taken place. For those that are interested I will put up my thoughts the day or night before racing when i know who is actually racing and who is doing the steering.

  13. #8

    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Location
    At home. Unless I'm out...
    Posts
    807
    Thanks
    1,118
    Been Thanked: 1,815 Times

    Default

    Day 1

    Supreme

    A case can be made for every one of these horses and good luck if you have a bet. At the head of the betting you have Melon for Ruby and willie, got to be worth a look. Bunk of early looks to be the best of the other Mullins runners. The three I like are Ballyandy, Elgin and river wylde.

    Arkle

    Altior wins easily.

    Champion hurdle

    I reckon it will be a jp McManus 1 - 2 with buveir d'aire and yanworth filling the spots just not sure in which order as both have looked impressive this season and better than the Mullins offering

    Mares hurdle

    This race revolves around the ricci runners, apples jade beat vroum vroum mag and limini beat apples jade. Ruby opts to ride limini so you have to assume that is the better horse

  14. #9

    Join Date
    Mar 2016
    Location
    At home. Unless I'm out...
    Posts
    807
    Thanks
    1,118
    Been Thanked: 1,815 Times

    Default

    Ok round 2... posted the above quickly last night forgetting I couldn't edit it

    1.30 supreme novices

    Ballyandy is my tentative pick in this race. He won last years champion bumper and got his act together scooping the valuable betfair hurdle last month and his course form gives him preference. Melon is an obvious danger being the choice of Ruby, but bunk off early has leading claims based on what he has done this year and rates best of the Mullins contingent. I'm not sure what to make of Melon but he's only run once (that we know about) so he could be anything. River Wylde won the dovecote in impressive fashion and providing this run doesn't come too soon is entitled to be thereabouts. Elgin holds place claims at a larger price

    2.10 arkle

    Altior should win this doing cartwheels but he has to get over the fences first. Looking further down the field cloudy dream jumps off the page at his current price. Taking altior out of the picture the next best horse is forest bihan who beat cloudy dream last time out, but they meet on more favourable terms for cloudy dream here (was giving forest bihan 3lbs last time) and if he runs to the form of his battle last time he can fill a place spot.

    2.50 ultima handicap

    Cheltenham handicaps are always tricky but the two I like are Holywell and singlefarmpayment. Both love it at Cheltenham but this is a tricky, tricky race.

    3.30 champion hurdle

    Yanworth and buveir d'aire look set to fill the top two spots between them. I prefer buveir d'aire out of the 2 but they can't really be split. I have done a CFC on those two runners

    4.10 mares hurdle

    Limini and vroum vroum mag seem to be the two to concentrate on with the key horse being apples jade. Apples jade beat VVG and limini beat apples jade. This will be an interesting affair and it wouldn't surprise to see lifeboat mona battling it out at the end.

    4.50 national hunt chase

    4m with amateurs on board is a long way but some of these horses I could ride it and still get round. Beware the bear for Henderson has impressed on his last few starts but the trip is an unknown for most of these. Edwulf holds leading claims as does genie in a bottle. A great race to watch.

    5.30 close brothers handicap

    Pfftt... with 5lbs covering all 20 runners I could have 15 goes and still not get the winner. I like two taffs but this will come down to jumping and tactics.

    Good luck if you have a bet today...

  15. The Following User Says Thank You to Timbo287 For This Useful Post:

    kbag (14-03-17)

  16. #10

    Join Date
    Feb 2016
    Location
    Gotham City
    Posts
    20,876
    Thanks
    48,639
    Been Thanked: 61,761 Times

    Default

    i have put me bets on for today - AM WITH A TIPPING COMPANY HIT AN MISS LIKE BUT IF THEY FIND OUT AM SHARING I GET KICKED OUT LOL
    WILL PUT THEM UP EACH DAY. UP TO YOU IF YOU WANA TRY

    NAP
    3.30 CHELTENHAM
    BRAIN POWER
    7/1
    1PT WIN

    Looking forward to this years renewal with many having obvious claims. It should be a fascinating race thats for sure. The ground drying should work in the favour of the selection. All the vibes coming from the yard suggest theres a lot more to come from 'Brain Power'. It seems as though the penny has finally dropped with him. The ground should play a big part and if it continues to dry, that wont suit 'Buveur D'air' who would have appreciated more underfoot conditions. 'Yanworth' is obviously one to beat but i always get the impression he would apprieciate going over further. Henderson had lined up the selection to take on 'Yanworth' previously but the ground went against him and both horses were pulled out (Buveur D'air replaced Brain Power and won at Sandown). The selection was last seen winning a valuable handicap at Ascot. Hard to watch the race due to the murky conditions but he looked to win with a bit in hand in the end blowing away the opposition. The headgear seems to have brushed his jumping up and he seems a lot slicker. There is going to be plenty of pace tomorrow which will help him settle and i can see him running a big race as he certainly possess's an engine. Moon Racer would have to be on the shortlist based on previous form. Petit Mouchoir arrives in form but i have a feeling he will be a sitting duck for the rest of the field.

    NB
    5.30 CHELTENHAM
    TWO TAFFS
    10/1
    0.75PT EW

    The selection looks very interesting in this now sporting a first time tongue tie and also first time cheek peices. That suggests hes not being seeing out his races and if they have the desired affect should spark a lot of improvement. Last seen running okay in a grade two novice chase at Warwick. The ground was against him but was not disgraced. His best run was probably at Kempton under conditions that suit. Only just going down behind 'Poker School'. The 3rd that day has since won twice, his latest win off a mark of 145. Also won a decent hurdle race at Ayr where the second is certainly no mug, infact it was quite a stong field. Really needs the ground to be good, good to soft his trainer has reported. Dan Skelton also thinks this race will be perfect for him, with a fast pace to aim at, perfect ground and distance is ideal. Its very competitive as you would expect with only a few lb covering the field. Reported to be in good form (as is Skeltons other runner) at home and has everything he needs to win so there should be no excuses after the race.


    2.25 Southwell BOROUGH BOY 2pt win NAP 5/2

    Uninspiring I appreciate but a fairly obvious tip given that had he been on the opposite side of the track he would have won last time out and in similar company, with the drop in trip no concern, he ought to take some stopping here. He has the speed for 5f, he has no issues at the course and he is on a ridiculously good mark. He travelled superbly, was last off the bridle, and traded at 1/3 with 2f left to go of the 5f trip last time out but being drawn on the slower side of the course took its toll in the latter stages and he didn't see the race out. There is a massive bias at Southwell at present and to be drawn on the stands side rail is a huge advantage so his draw in stall 8 is ideal. Everything is in his favour for a huge run and winning should be a formality. If we get anywhere near the predicted price of 3/1 it should be snapped up.


    2.50 Cheltenham SINGLEFARMPAYMENT 8/1 1pt win NB
    & HOLYWELL 0.5pt win 12/1

    My first dip into this years (jump racing, I'm not having it bigger than Royal Ascot!!) racing extravaganza which is the Cheltenham Festival and straight onto a horse that looks very well treated and providing he gets more luck than last time out will be bang there. Singlefarmpayment won with loads in hand despite his 2 length win here back in December given that he simply idled and got bored out front over the last and despite being brought down at the 12th he was still travelling full of zest on his last start. Nestled in the rear, dropped in trip, he was clearly travelling well within himself when a few had been under significant pressure but was wiped out but faller More Bucks and his race brought to an end. He's been given plenty of time off following that defeat and comes into the race a fresh horse for a yard that have their horses in excellent nick. Racing off of the same mark and off of a nice low weight he fits every single trend for the race and most importantly has proven himself around this course (he races on a different course today but travels powerfully enough that it wont be an issue). Of his opponents, of which there are a few, HOLYWELL who comes to life at the festival has clearly been laid out for the race and Jonjo is in great form, but on a form perspective he's hard to have real confidence over and for that reason I'm advising just a small saver.

    0.5PT WIN MIXED DOUBLES ABOVE 4 HORSES - Singlefarmpayment, Borough Boy, Brain Power and Two Taff's

  17. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to joker_the_smoker For This Useful Post:

    Ganjaholic (14-03-17), Timbo287 (14-03-17)

Page 1 of 4 1 2 3 4 LastLast

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  


THCtalk.com Disclaimer - You must be over 18 years old to view/use this site .THCtalk.com does not encourage growing Cannabis or possessing Cannabis. Learning how to grow Cannabis instructions should be for educational purposes only. All Information contained in this web site is for: Historical reference, Scientific reference and Educational purposes only. Visitors to this website are advised against breaking the law as It is illegal to smoke, grow, or possess cannabis in the UK and some US States