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Thread: Cheltenham festival 2017

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    1.30
    I was all about neon wolf here but after seeing all but altior get turned over I'm having a rethink. Gordon Elliott is flying after sending out 3 winners and he sends a girl to mix it with the boys. Shattered love has been very good and in receipt of 7lb and at 12/1 she seems a good eachway bet

    2.10
    Might bite should have won at kempton but fell he then had his confidence restored but this is a tougher assignment. Bellshill has a chance of giving Mullins a winner. Henderson is the record holding trainer at Cheltenham after sending out 50 festival winners and he sends out whisper who is 2 from 2 over fences and 2 out of 2 at this track. He won over 3m while hurdling so he does stay the trip.
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    Any tips for today ? Gotta make up yesterday's losses somehow lol anyone had any winners ? Don't think the tipsters did well yesterday

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    were shite man. maybe today will be better lol. will stick them up anyway

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    Hopefully Neon Wolf can start the day with a win. ( this was tipped early in the week)

    NAP
    4.50 CHELTENHAM
    DIVIN BERE
    5/1
    1PT WIN


    This race typically brings out a shock result, however im hoping that trend will end today. Twenty Two runners so who ever wins will no doubt need a bit of luck in running. The selection carries top weight but he was also entered in the triumph, with Nicky favouring this race. They have been patient with him, since they got him from France, allowing him to strengthen up in his own time. Made stable debut at Huntingdon in what was effectively a 3 horse race. Divin Bere took on Triumph Hurdle hopeful 'Master Blueyes' and outbattled his rival to win by a neck. Showed battling qualities that will be needed in this and his rival has since impressed the next twice winning two races. Divin Bere has also since had a wind op and has not been rushed back to the track. Nicky Henderson gets them spot on for this meeting and he should be no different. He's carrying top weight here off a rating of 139 and that might be leniant with more set to come. Although some of his rivals could also be well in, which is generally the case he could have to much class. There will be a lot of pace, as you would expect, and will be interesting where Fehily has his him positioned. If getting the gaps and coming on further for being fresh, wind op and strengthening then can continue his trainers good start to the meeting.

    NB
    3.05 HUNTINGDON
    TROUBLED SOUL
    8/1
    0.75PT EW


    Ignore her last run at Cheltenham where she ran no sort of race. That was over fences and her jumping seemed to go to pot. Not been seen since and it may have been she had a niggle or wind op. Returns to the track back over hurdles and it looks a low key race. Her mark over hurdles is 9lb lower thanher chase mark. She won a maiden hurdle when over in Ireland with Denis Hogan at Kilbeggan. She placed at Stratford when that yard brought her over off a mark of 112, today is off 103 so looks well treated. Only had a handful of runs for this yard and im confident they will get off the mark with her soon. Found an average looking race here to be honest, with Highland Life looking like a danger, but that one needs to follow up latest run, which is not always the case. Conditions fine



    Still trying to come to terms with yesterdays defeats, BOROUGH BOY be everything by a mile bar the one horse that was subject of a huge gamble, 13/2 into 9/4 in the space of minutes and wins. Then followed by SINGLEFARMPAYMENT, himself subject of a lot of money, jumps the last a length or two clear only to be beaten a short head on a photo finish. Gutting to say the least, a Cheltenham winner from a predominantly flat tipster is such a personal buzz, denied in the cruellest of ways. Todays fair is as follows...


    2.50 Cheltenham HAWK HIGH 33/1 0.75pt ew
    (you can get 6 places with Paddy Power and Sky bet but for a lower price)


    This Easterby horse has obviously had his setbacks but as a result he comes here a fresh animal and with previous festival experience I think hes been missed in the market today. until the 14/15 season he was a regular runner and winner on both the flat and all weather scene but hes had just three runs since being injured in the Vincent O'Brien handicap at the festival 2 years ago. He ran well off of just one start in the same race last year, finishing 9th but staying on well over the 2 mile 1f trip suggesting that he would get further in time. He also made a pleasing comeback this season at Doncaster not beaten miles following 267 days off the track in a race that would have been a build up to the festival. If wasn't much of a race and again run over two miles was doing his best work late on but it would have been used solely to get him right for today. Hawk High is only one of a couple of horses that fit a lot of trends for this race (trends will be out soon) and you can be sure that the easterby yard will have him as spot on as they possibly can. His only real question mark is the trip but hes shaped on multiple occasions that he gets better the further he goes and if he gets the trip today he ought to have a say in the finish.

    5.30 Cheltenham NEXT DESTINATION 10/1 0.75pt ew NB
    4 places


    A little concerned that Mullins went without a winner yesterday but even so they largely ran with credit and I feel that this horse has a great chance. Hes not been impressive if you look solely to his winning margins but he looks a horse that only does enough and when a horse comes to challenge he simply ups the gears and does what he needs to, to stay in front. He goes into the race unbeaten for a yard that have great success in this race and is the choice ride of Ruby Walsh. Vibes from the yard, albeit they aren't the most reliable, are that this horse has been putting in some excellent work and for me 10/1 looks a little generous for a horse that's done nothing wrong.

    8.50 Newcastle GRECIAN KING 9/2 1pt win NAP

    As soon as I saw that this horse was back out again and eye-catchingly had been sold and moved to Barrons yard I was going to be tipping it. He was a quirky but talented horse for the Tate yard and was denied a win last time out as Chelmsford when badly hampered up the rail losing the race in the process. He had show he has the ability to win races before but perhaps not the temperament to follow it through. Having been sold and moved hes been given a lot of time to settle in to new surroundings by quite importantly, for this yard and this horse especially, he has been gelded. We've been on the winning end of David Barrons geldings a few time and hes a trainer that always seems to get them ready to fire first time out. He has a 26% strike rate and a 50% return on investment for these runners and in what is an exposed field hes the only on open to improvement.

    0.5PT WIN MIXED DOUBLES ABOVE 4 HORSES - GRECIAN KING, NEXT DESTINATION, DIVIN BERE AND TROUBLED SOUL
    Last edited by joker_the_smoker; 15-03-17 at 11:03 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ginger-bud View Post
    Any tips for today ? Gotta make up yesterday's losses somehow lol anyone had any winners ? Don't think the tipsters did well yesterday
    Tom Segal had two winners yesterday 5/1 and 16/1.

    I like hawk high for the coral cup available at 40's with bet365.

    Here are Segal offerings for today. Prices are long gone though ��

    WEDNESDAY TIPPING PRICEWISE TOM SEGAL


    Neon Wolf the one to beat but Irish shouldn't be underestimated



    Shattered Love

    1.30 Cheltenham

    1pt win at 161 with bet365 (14-1 with Betway, Coral, Ladbrokes & Sky Bet)



    Peregrine Run

    2.50 Cheltenham

    1pt win at 10-1 with bet365, Betfair, Betway, Hills & 188bet



    Kalondra

    2.50 Cheltenham

    1pt win at 25-1 with bet365 & BoyleSports



    Auvergnat

    4.10 Cheltenham

    1pt win at 8-1 with BoyleSports (7-1 bet365, Betway, Hills)



    Divin Bere

    4.50 Cheltenham

    1pt win at 7-1 with Ladbrokes (13-2 Coral)



    Icario

    4.50 Cheltenham

    1pt win at 40-1 with Betfair (33-1 bet365)



    Bakmaj

    5.30 Cheltenham

    1pt win at 18-1 with bet365 (16-1 Betway, Coral, Hills, Ladbrokes, 188Bet)


    Already advised

    Neon Wolf

    1.30 Cheltenham

    1pt win at 8-1

    Alpha Des Obeaux

    2.10 Cheltenham

    1pt win at 16-1

    Singlefarmpayment (NR)


    Douvan is almost certainly the best horse running at the Cheltenham Festival this year and he might well be contesting the worst race in terms of overall quality.

    Unless he comes a cropper, he is going to win the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (3.30) in a canter. If ever there was a race to sit back and watch it is this one.

    The opening Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle (1.30) features one of the major talking horses of the meeting in Neon Wolf.

    Having suggested backing him a month or so ago, I'm more than hopeful he can deliver, but this is a very different test to the one he looked so impressive in at Haydock over 2m on soft ground last time.

    He might well be up to it and the step up in trip shouldn't be an issue, but he's a short price now and, as we saw yesterday in the Supreme and the Mares' Hurdle, Gordon Elliott is arguably the trainer with the most firepower at present.

    His main hope has to be the mare Shattered Love, who has won her last two races by a total of 50 lengths.

    Yes, she was left clear at the last at Fairyhouse last time but she still beat a top-class mare by 13 lengths and the time was good.

    She will like the better ground and stays well, so as much as I like Neon Wolf, Shattered Love looks the one to back.

    Elliott has the first and second favourites in the Coral Cup (2.50) and there is every chance his Tombstone is thrown in. He beat Jezki last time in a Grade 3 and was fourth in a superb Supreme 12 months ago, so it is easy to see why he's favourite.

    However, this is always a fiercely competitive handicap and most of the winners need a bit of zip. I can see Tombstone starting at a short price and maybe the 5-1 will look massive come 3pm, but I'm not sure it does now.

    Elliott's other runner is Automated, who was given a superb ride by Bryan Cooper to win at Navan last time. Before that he had been a hard horse to win with and, given he's gone up 10lb for his recent success and will need a lot of luck the way he is likely to be ridden, I'm not sure he represents great value either.

    The two I like in the race are Peregrine Run for Peter Fahey and Roger Loughran and big improver Kalondra for Neil Mulholland.

    Peregrine Run is easy to explain as he is the only horse to have beaten Wholestone this season and did so over course and distance, while back in third was West Approach, who has twice run well behind Uknowhatimeanharry.

    That form is rock solid and I'm prepared to forgive his subsequent defeat at Warwick last time because the ground was much too soft for him.

    Kalondra is up 12lb for winning a much weaker race at Huntingdon last time, but he couldn't have been more impressive and he looks tailor-made for the rigours of a Coral Cup.

    It could be he is finally getting his act together and the way he traveled through his race at Huntingdon last time marked him down as a seriously high class horse in the making.

    Tin Soldier is the other really interesting one. There has been a big word for him for a couple of days now and Ruby Walsh is on, but he takes a bit of stoking up and will need luck.

    The Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase (4.10) is one of my favourite races to bet on at the Cheltenham Festival.

    It's not that these banks contests have any special fascination, just that it is one of the few races most punters ignore and therefore the market isn't anywhere near as mature as most of the others.

    Cantlow has been favourite for ages and his transformation under Enda Bolger has been amazing. The ground was probably a bit too soft for him when he was beaten here in January and he is surely going to run well.

    However, he's a 12-year-old now and there are plenty of younger horses in the line-up who could run the legs off him.

    Gordon Elliott has brought Cause Of Causes for a couple of schools around the track and the nine-year-old has won the four-miler and the Kim Muir at the last two festivals.

    He has shown nothing in three starts this season, but he comes alive at this time of the year and it would be no surprise if he won a third different race at the meeting.

    However, the one to back is the much younger Auvergnat, who has a bit to find at the weights, but is only a seven-year-old who we haven't seen anything like the best of yet.

    He was travelling like the winner when coming down on this course in January and then stayed on well to win at Punchestown next time. Auvergnat is the one of JP McManus's trio who is still unexposed and he looks worth backing.

    The Fred Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (4.50) is wide open and with the weights having gone up markedly overnight things don't look quite so straightforward for Divin Bere, whose defeat of Master Blueyes is clearly good form.

    However, he is well handicapped on that run, has had a wind operation and could easily be too classy despite top weight. He makes plenty of appeal at 7-1.

    Project Bluebook promises to be suited by the race, but at a much bigger price I suggest chancing Icario for that man Elliott again. He might look the stable's second string, but I think he is going to be suited by the better ground and a strongly run race.

    His form needs improving on, but he bumped into a really good horse in Outspoken two starts ago and wouldn't have liked the ground one bit when just beaten last time.

    Icario is a longshot, but anything trained by Elliott is worth considering after his treble yesterday.

    The Weatherbys Champion Bumper (5.30) is wide open. Despite everyone always saying that the race is an Irish benefit, British trained horses have won four of the last seven.

    Having said that, the one I like is Bakmaj for Alan Fleming, who yesterday's finale with Tully East.

    He was bought for this race having chased home Carter McKay on his debut and was an easy winner at Leopardstown on good ground last time.

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    F*{%{king horses

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    shiteeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

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    Seriously did u watch that douvan 2/9 and can't even jump a fence f-donkey lol

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ginger-bud View Post
    Seriously did u watch that douvan 2/9 and can't even jump a fence f-donkey lol
    was pityful that race like lol

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    The champion chase was a great race. Douvan didn't look happy at all, never settled and was never really travelling but he will come out at punchestown or aintree and get back to winning ways. It's a bit harsh to call the race pitiful, as your taking away from special tiara and fox norton who put on a bold show of jumping and ran their races.

    That's the great thing about the festival it can find many a good horse out (neon wolf, yanworth) and also leave you as a punter with your heart in your mouth. I went horse (pun intended) trying to get might bite back up in the RSA.

    Segal's offerings Prices revert to last nights prices with most bookies at 8.30am for a short time. Handy if you want some bigger odds but not paddypower fucking crooks!

    Drying conditions can see Uknowhatimeanharry beaten

    8:00PM, MAR 15 2017

    For Good Measure
    2.10 Cheltenham
    1pt win at 10-1 with bet365, Betfred & 188Bet


    Clondaw Cian
    2.10 Cheltenham
    1pt win at 40-1 with Betfair & Ladbrokes


    Cole Harden
    3.30 Cheltenham
    1pt win at 10-1 with BoyleSports & 188Bet


    Unowhatimeanharry is many people's banker of the Cheltenham Festival and there can be little doubt he is the one to beat in the Sun Bets Stayers' Hurdle (3.30).

    Since joining Harry Fryhe is unbeaten in eight starts, loves the track and only ever seems to do just enough, so who knows how much more is under the bonnet?

    However, he has been beating the same horses time after time and is a very short price considering he is taking on a whole raft of different runners today.

    The likes of Nichols Canyon and Champion Hurdle winner Jezki bring top-class 2m form to the table and the latter has won a Grade 1 over 3m too. Throw in Shaneshill, who has finished second three times at the festival, and it is not hard to make a case for Unowhatimeanharry being far too short a price.

    All three can be given good chances for differing reasons but the one I suggest backing was beaten by Uknowhatimeanharry last time and was getting 8lb too.

    On that basis it is extremely difficult to make a case for Cole Harden, but that run represented a huge turnaround in Cole Harden's form and we all know he is not the same horse on soft ground.

    The Stayers' Hurdle has a history of going to runners who have won the race before and, back in 2015, Cole Harden won it with loads in hand. This might be a better race, but Cole Harden has everything in his favour and, on the drying ground, is going to be a hard horse to pass up the Cheltenham Hill.

    Having suggested backing both Uxizandre and Empire Of Dirt at big prices for the Ryanair Chase (2.50) a couple of months ago, I'm full of hope one of them will be good enough and the drier the ground the more they will enjoy it, unlike Un De Sceaux.

    Un De Sceaux will still be a tough nut to crack and has been crying out for this trip, but his form on good ground is nothing like as strong as it is on a soft surface.

    If Yorkhill gets round unscathed, he will probably win the JLT Novices' Chase (1.30) but the way he has jumped makes that a pretty big 'if'.

    Top Notch, Disko and Politilogue are all much better jumpers than Yorkhill on what we've seen and there isn't much between that trio. Slight preference would be for Disko but not by much.

    As always the Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (2.10) is fiercely competitive and there are loads with obvious chances.

    My old friend Caid Du Berlais is well handicapped and comes here after falling at the first on Tuesday but preference is for Clondaw Cian, who has sneaked in at the bottom of the handicap.

    He looked much improved when hacking up over 2m5f at Cheltenham in November, but has been a bit moody since and had to work hard to qualify at Exeter last time.

    I'm hoping the application of cheekpieces and the better ground will result in him travelling and jumping more fluently and, if that does happen, he is going to run a massive race for Suzy Smith.

    Smith went close to winning this contest with Material World in 2007 and this has been the plan for Clondaw Cian all season.

    Philip Hobbs has a great record in the race and his For Good Measure looks sure to run well back on good ground. He should also be backed.

    Already advised

    Uxizandre
    2.50 Cheltenham
    1pt each-way at 33-1

    Empire Of Dirt
    2.50 Cheltenham
    1pt each-way at 25-1

    Shaneshill
    3.30 Cheltenham
    1pt each-way at 20-1

    Thrown-in chaser has to be backed on ground he'll love

    8:00PM, MAR 15 2017

    Thomas Crapper
    4.10 Cheltenham
    1pt win at 11-1 with bet365, Betway, Coral, Hills & Ladbrokes

    Road To Respect
    4.10 Cheltenham
    1pt win at 22-1 with Betfair (20-1 with bet365, BoyleSports & Hills)

    Toe The Line
    4.50 Cheltneham
    1pt each-way at 33-1 with Hills (25-1 with bet365, Betfair, & 188Bet)

    Pendra
    5.30 Cheltenham
    1pt win at 18-1 with Betfair (16-1 with bet365, Betway, BoyleSports, Hills & Ladbrokes)

    There haven't been many more impressive winners this season than Thomas Crapper at Newbury just 12 days ago and his 5lb penalty sneaks him into the bottom of the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase (4.10).

    If that race hasn't taken too much out of him, and it shouldn't have given how easily he won, he must be extremely hard to beat at a track that suits him so well.

    Robin Dickin has always been of the opinion Thomas Crapper is better on good ground and he ran a blinder when second to a really good horse in Irish Cavalier at the festival as a novice in 2015.

    Even after his recent win he runs off a lower mark today and he has been running consistently well in the best handicaps at Cheltenham all season.

    He managed to splash through the wet ground last time, but he can't act under testing conditions and must have a first-rate chance on today's surface.

    These handicap good things tend to get found out in the heat of Cheltenham battle, but Thomas Crapper is still a double-figure price and I much prefer him to Diamond King.

    Everyone seems to think this race has been a long-term plan for last year's Coral Cup winner Diamond King, but I'm far from convinced about that and his jumping hasn't been all that convincing.

    Another Irish novice, Road To Respect, has much better form and at 20-1 he makes plenty of appeal on his handicap chase debut.

    He was a notable mover in the market in that funny race won by Acapella Bourgeois at Navan last time, and did much the best of those held up off the pace.

    He wasn't beaten far in the Drinmore or the Racing Post Novice Chases before Christmas and they are both Grade 1s. On good ground at this trip he has a massive chance.

    I was going to leave the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Riders' Handicap Chase (5.30) well alone but at the prices it could be worth giving one last chance to an old favourite in Pendra, who has run well at the festival loads of times.

    Stamina could be an issue for him but he always goes well fresh, has blinkers on for the first time and, most importantly, has Derek O'Connor in the saddle.

    With the weight range only 12lb, Pendra doesn't have to give too much away and he won a good handicap at Ascot over 3m easily on his comeback run last season.

    Nothing much has gone right for Willie Mullins so far this week and Douvan jumped as though he was petrified yesterday.

    Mullins totally dominates the Trull House Stud Mares' Novices' Hurdle (4.50), but surely Let's Dance needs further and softer ground despite her top-class form.

    Airlie Beach might be the one for the Mullins team, but there are a few others with claims on good ground, most notably La Bague Au Roi, Forge Meadow and, at a massive price, Toe The Line.

    The last-named is simply miles too big a price as she is rated higher than 100 on the Flat and comes into today's race in great form, having been narrowly beaten under a huge weight on ground she wouldn't have liked last time.

    She was beaten a short head by Forge Meadow earlier in the season and is 10lb better off today.
    Last edited by Timbo287; 16-03-17 at 09:16 AM.

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