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Thread: Cheltenham festival 2017

  1. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ginger-bud View Post
    Seriously did u watch that douvan 2/9 and can't even jump a fence f-donkey lol
    Ruby Walsh's post-race judgement on Douvan was that "he felt shit".
    First completed grow Timbos second attempt sour diesel auto
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  2. #22

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    NAP
    2.50 CHELTENHAM
    EMPIRE OF DIRT
    5/2 (4/1 when typing)
    1PT WIN

    No surprises here with this one. Im taking him on to beat Un De Sceaux. The drying out ground i think should suit ours more but theres no denying that UDS is a classy operator. The Irish havnt had the best record in this race but stopped the rot last year, landing the 1 2 3. The selection actually won around this track in the festival last year in 22 runner handicap over 3miles on good ground. Held up and made headway before jumping the last and stayed on to the line. So he certainly handles the track. Josies Hill will probably make sure theres a decent pace and go a good gallop with UDS probably tracking. Would be interesting if they took each other on. Connections were toiling with the idea of running in the Gold Cup but have favoured this over the big one. His recent run behind 'Sizing John' in the Irish Gold Cup(runs in the gold cup 9/1) was a good performance going down by 3/4 of length in the end. Willie Mullins hasnt had the most ideal start to the festival either and the danger could come from somewhere else. That could be Sub Lieutenant who represents the same connections. When a few might be toiling ours should be staying on, on a track he has form on

    3.30 CHELTENHAM
    JEZKI
    7/1
    0.5PT WIN
    0.5PT REV FORECAST WITH UKNOWHATIMEANHARRY

    I think JEZKI will run a big race tomorrow if he stays the trip around here. Obviously 'UKNOWWHATIMEANHARRY' will be the one to beat and any horse who does, needs to be a classy individual. I would like to think Jezki could fit that bill. Prepared to ignore his last run when behind 'Tombstone' (that horse was poor yesterday but jockey reported he never got going). That run was on heavy and his trainer has stated the horse never appreciates ground that bad and they were still happy with the run. Obviously has come out of that okay and they opted for the stayers hurdles. He's ran once over this distance when beating the mighty 'Hurricane Fly' who was also having his first run over 3m. Seemed to see out the distance well and won at 2m4f the time before at Aintree on good ground. I think this drying out ground will be ideal and we know he wont mind the track as has won a Champion Hurdle earlier in career. If seeing out the trip and confirming hes still got the class of a few year ago, he could very much give the fav a lot to think about.

    2.10 Cheltenham ALZAMMAR 40/1 0.5pt ew
    & ELECTRIC CONCORDE 20/1 0.5pt ew

    SKYBET OFFERING 6 PLACES MY RECOMMENDATION WOULD BE TO USE THEM

    I'm advising two horses for place money in this wide open affair. Ill start with ALZAMMAAR who if he had been trained by a more fashionable yard would be half this price considering the form he brings into the race and the fact the drying ground will be well in his favour. He was a useful hurdler last year for the Greatrex yard before being switched to Sam Drakes new yard in the summer and made his debut over an inadequate trip at Catterick sent off at massive odds but only beaten a half length by NIETZCHE, who nearly landed a massive gamble in the Fred Winter yesterday at Cheltenham. He then followed up in a qualifier for this at Mussleburgh and although running well finishing 6th his yard stated that the horse wasn't right. With fair Cheltenham form to his name, only 10 lengths shy of UKNOWHATIMEANHARRY, in 2015 on his only visit hes clearly happy at the course and the ground will be right up his street. ELECTRIC CONCORDE is another horse that wasn't quite right last time out and considering he holds joint favourite PRESENTING PERCY and another market leader ISLEOFHOPESANDDREAMS on form his price of 20/1 looks far too generous. He won well in a qualifier for this at Leopardstown, Irelands closest thing to the test of Cheltenham, but was sick when he raced again at Thurles never involved and pulling up. He can be expected to leave that form well behind him and run a big race for a yard that do exceptionally well with the few horses they bring here.


    5.30 Cheltenham MALL DINI 9/1 0.75pt ew NAP

    5 places SKY BET & BET365

    Its fair to say that 90% of the horses at the festival have been laid out for their races but this horse has been on my radar since the tail end of autumn last year and ill be surprised if he doesn't run a very bold race today. He has filled the frame on a fair few occasions this season but ridden in the manor of a horse that had stacks in reserve but held back to protect his mark. MALL DINI is perfectly capable on this ground at this course has he proved when bolting up in the 3 mile pertemps final at last years festival. His form this year has been rock solid too, on two occasions losing by 5 lengths to both GENIE IN A BOTTLE and EDWULF who both run screamers in the JT MCNAMARA Chase, the later would have gone extremely close but for a tumble at the last. Hes been tried over trips way too short of his optimum merely as a method to keep him ticking over and spot on for this race. He will have no issue with the trip, The seven year old’s record over three miles (including PTP’s) is 114313, and is ridden by a top amateur in Katie Walsh. Ill be stunned if hes not involved.

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  4. #23

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    Another cracking days racing yesterday with Ruby and willie springing back to life. How much fun was un de sceaux having yesterday. Ruby described himself as a magic passenger. Saying that you could probably have sellotaped me to the horse and it still would have won. A good winner yesterday in Road to Respect adv. 20/1. Hope a few followed segals advice. Last day of the festival today and what a day we have in store. I think they should move the foxhunters to Wednesday and the Xcountry to Friday then it would be an amazing days racing. Djakadam seems to be the one to break willies duck in the gold cup after yesterday.

    Final offerings for the festival

    Advice

    Landofhopeandglory
    1.30 Cheltenham
    1pt win at 14-1 with bet365, Betway, BoyleSports and Coral


    Vosne Romanee
    2.10 Cheltenham
    1pt win at 33-1 with BoyleSports (28-1 with bet365)


    Mick Jazz
    2.10 Cheltenham
    1pt win at 11-1 with Hills


    Monalee
    2.50 Cheltenham
    1pt win at 10-1 with BoyleSports (9-1 with bet365)

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Advised ante-post

    Dinaria Des Obeaux
    1.30 Cheltenham
    1pt win at 10-1

    Cliffs Of Dover NR

    Outlander
    3.30 Cheltenham
    1pt each-way at 16-1
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Advice

    Taglietelle
    4.50 Cheltenham
    1pt win at 33-1 with bet365, Betway & Hills


    Coo Star Sivola
    4.50 Cheltenham
    1pt win at 18-1 with 188Bet (16-1 generally)


    Rock The World
    5.30 Cheltenham
    1pt win at 14-1 with 188Bet (12-1 with bet365 & Betfred)


    Calipto
    5.30 Cheltenham
    1pt win at 33-1 with Betfair (25-1 generally)


    Ireland can strike with Landofhopeandglory
    You cannot keep good men down and the obituaries that were being written about Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins after the first two days were torn up into a million pieces after they dominated day three.

    As much as they will have enjoyed Yorkhill, Un De Sceaux, Nichols Canyon and Let's Dance, the one they really want is the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup (3.30) with Djakadam.

    Twice runner-up in the race, Djakadam has been the subject of extremely strong vibes for some time now and he has enjoyed a much better preparation than last year, that's for sure.

    I think he is going to start a short-priced favourite and he and Cue Card look the clear form horses.

    I was going to go for one of Jonjo O'Neill's horses, More Of That or Minella Rocco, but they are short enough prices now and I can't really see any great value left in the market.

    The two JP McManus juveniles Defi Du Seuil and Charli Parcs have dominated the market for the JCB Triumph Hurdle (1.30) for ages and both their trainers aren't contemplating defeat.

    The ground may swing things in Charli Parcs' favour but he has to overcome a bad fall last time and he is clearly not the easiest ride. I wonder whether Noel Fehily might take the bull by the horns and make the running as Charli Parcs clearly didn't enjoy being in and around horses last time.

    Master Blueyes continues to be underrated. He would surely have beaten Charli Parcs last time, he will love the ground and he jumps superbly.

    The big prices have gone about him since the Adonis and the Kempton time wasn't great, so it could be worth chancing Landofhopeandglory for last year's winning connections.

    He was just about the best of the Irish at the start of the season on good ground and has struggled on testing ground recently. Now he is back on a decent surface, I could see him being the best of the Irish and, given the week they've had, that might be good enough.

    Keeping with the Irish-trained runners, Mick Jazz looks to have a massive chance in the Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle (2.10). He travels like a dream and will love the strong pace.

    Gordon Elliott has one of his best chances of the week with Death Duty in the Albert Bartlett in the next race and I'm convinced Mick Jazz is going to run a massive race too.

    In the same race Vosne Romanee is massively overpriced for Dr Richard Newland, who has an excellent record when aiming one at a big handicap and this has been the plan for ages.

    It is surely significant that one of the best hurdle jockeys in the weighing room, Aidan Coleman, has been booked to ride him for ages and isn't riding one of JP McManus's horses.

    Dr Newland prepped him for today on the all-weather at Wolverhampton recently when he won a decent little contest and the form of his wins at Chepstow and Perth last spring is looking better all the time.

    He has to improve again to win a County Hurdle but that is most certainly not out of the question.

    Of the rest I was temped by both Kapstadt, who was impressive at the track in December, and Wait For Me, who ran really well in the race last season.

    Death Duty is probably the right favourite in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (2.50) as he should stay the 3m well and this race might not be the all-out war it sometimes can be.

    However, Augusta Kate would have given him a run for his money but for falling last time and I think Monalee is better now than when he was beaten by Death Duty on bad ground in December.

    Monalee was really impressive last time and at 9-1 he is the value against the favourite.


    Taglietelle looks thrown in on Pertemps run

    If you are behind the eight-ball coming into the last two races of the Cheltenham Festival you are going to need some help because they are two of the most difficult races to solve of the whole week.

    When Willie Mullins doesn't win the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (4.50) it becomes virtually impossible.

    However, Gordon Elliott has been having a dream of a week and is on record as stating that there is no race he would like to win more than this one due to his close connections with the Pipe family.

    He saddles leading fancy Runfordave, who is unexposed and comes here on the back of an easy win at Clonmel last time.

    He could go close, but topweight Taglietelle is thrown in here as he was a close fourth in the Pertemps Final last year off a 9lb higher mark.

    Taglietelle didn’t qualify for that race this year, but that could be a blessing in disguise as I’ve always felt 3m stretches him and he’s been running all right in bad ground. I have no doubt he’s been trained with the festival in mind.

    With the excellent Cian Collins taking off 3lb, he is not having to give too much weight away here and is way too big a price at 33-1 in a few places.

    Nearer the top of the market, Battleford has to have a serious chance if he jumps, but Nick Williams had his first winner at the festival on Wednesday and his Coo Star Sivola looks sure to run a massive race under Lizzie Kelly.

    A winner over course and distance, Coo Star Sivola ran a blinder in the Fred Winter last year considering he went on a long way out in a strongly run race and he looked superb at Warwick last time.

    That wasn’t a good race, but Coo Star Sivola couldn’t have been more impressive and on that form he looks extremely well handicapped.

    The concluding Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (5.30) is all about position and luck, but one man who is better in these big handicaps than anyone else is Davy Russell and he has a massive chance on Dandridge, who was unlucky last year.

    Dandridge has been all the rage in the run-up to the meeting, but on form he shouldn’t beat last year’s third Rock The World, who is 5lb better off at the weights and was only just behind.

    Rock The World has had his wind tinkered with since he last ran and has been trained for this race. Don’t forget he was gambled into 9-2 favourite when running so well last year.

    Le Prezien could be Paul Nicholls’ best chance of a festival winner and has a big chance if he jumps, while Velvet Maker comes from a yard that has already had a handicap chase winner this week.

    However, on his first run for Venetia Williams I can’t resist suggesting a speculative punt on former decent hurdler Calipto.

    Fourth in a Triumph Hurdle and a Betfair Hurdle, Calipto is extremely well handicapped if his new trainer has got him back to his best.

  5. #24
    The Aspie Toker Guest

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    Hi Timbo,

    How much have you won/lost during festival?

    I've never placed a bet in my life.

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  7. #25

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    Good question aspie.

    I'm £25 and some change up over the 3 days. Monday was a winning day +£34.30. wed -£17.25 thurs +£8.08. I don't gamble in stupid amounts (£2.50 to £5) unlike the people who stake £100's at a time... a guy on another forum was £1400 down at the end of day 2 recouped £700 yesterday and he has staked another £2100 today... more money than sense springs to mind... speaking of which Somebody had £500000 on Douvan on Wednesday.

    I read people betting in large amounts like this and I can't imagine doing it myself
    Last edited by Timbo287; 17-03-17 at 11:11 AM.

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  9. #26

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    Direct quote from another forum shows you how bad some people get. Basically he is in the shit even if it wins and he is on at fancy double figure prices

    Re: CHELTENHAM FRIDAY 17TH MARCH - DISCUSSION AND THOUGHTS
    « Reply #19 on: Today at 10:12:33 AM »
    Quote
    Everyone should worry less about what others are doing and do what works for them. If Djakadam wins I'll still be behind on my ante post bets, if he loses it'll be big losses.

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  11. #27
    Bulls Guest

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    Some people don't know where to stop.
    I guess I will be busy boy tonight. Many drunk Irish complaining they lost lots of money and that's the reason they are so wasted and causing issues.

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  13. #28

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    It makes me laugh as it can't be any fun if your betting in those amounts, unless you're a lottery winner.

    When the fun stops, stop

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  15. #29

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    from a pay service

    17th March Cheltenham Foxhunters
    In the Foxhunters

    On the Fringe 4pts win @ 15/8



    Sweet as a Nut

    0.5pt win @ 22/1

    & 1.5pt ew w/o the fav @ 14/1



    Minella for Value

    0.5pt win @ 66's

    & 1pt ew w/o the fav @ 40/1

    17th March 5.05 Down Royal
    Quiet Account 3pts win @ 13/8

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  17. #30

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    cba with bastard donkeys today

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