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Thread: Grand National 2017

  1. #1

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    Default Grand National 2017

    With the biggest lottery... I mean horse race taking place on Saturday I'll post a few bits and bobs regarding the national here. I think Bud does a pick the winner comp so hopefully this will help someone.

    Bet365 are doing eachway money back up to £125 for existing customers. Place a bet of £125 each way (£250 total stake and get £125 back) this will work in multiple selections up to £125. This is paid back as cash and not a free bet.

    Firstly a professional punters philosophy of the race.

    The race is a complete lottery, form means nothing as 4 and a quarter miles is the longest race in the GB and Irish calendar. With overrounds regularly being 145-160 this is the bookies race and a chance to fill their coffers. Most proffessional punters will not actually have a live bet come 5.14pm as they will have traded out and moved on to the next race. My advice is to pick two horses through the name or however you want to choose them take your £10 and have £2.50 each way on the two. Then just sit back and enjoy, it's a race to watch not to smash your minerals on.
    Even the pros say it is just a race to watch and enjoy with no real way of picking the winner.

    12 year trends and stats (these can be a good indicator and is a tool I use) when the final secs are in I will whittle down the shortlist

    -12/12 winners had been 8 to 11 years old
    -12/12 in the past 12 years 46 out of 48 places had been filled by horses aged 8 to 11
    -12/12 winners had had OR of 136+ (since 2009 - 27 out of 32 places had been filled by horses with OR 143+, 7 winners rated 143+)
    -12/12 winners had run since the National weights were announced
    -12/12 winners had had absence of 21 to 56 days
    -12/12 winners had run 3 to 6 times since September 1st that season
    -12/12 winners had run 1 to 3 times since January 1st that calendar year
    -12/12 winners had run in 10 to 27 chases
    -12/12 winners had won 0 to 11 chases (-11/12 won 0 to 5 chases)
    -12/12 winners had won 0 to 3 handicap chases
    -12/12 winners had won 0 to 3 chases that season
    -12/12 winners had posted career high RPR in a chase over 3M+
    -12/12 winners had posted an RPR of 134+ in a chase over 3M 2F+
    -11/12 winners had been Irish or French bred (1x winner British bred last year)
    -11/12 winners had won no more than 1 chase that season
    -11/12 winners had won a chase over 3M+
    -11/12 winners had run in 5 to 21 handicap chases (1x winner ran in 1 handicap, came from Grade 1 chase)
    -11/12 winners had been initially allotted a weight of at least 10-5 on publication of National weights (1x winner allotted 9-13)
    -11/12 winners had finished in the first 6 on their last completed start
    -11/12 winners had run in a Graded race
    -11/12 winners had posted their highest RPR at a left-handed track
    -10/12 winners had won a chase worth 29K+


    -0/12 record of horses aged 7 or younger (none placed)
    -0/12 record of horses aged 12 or older (2x placed)
    -0/12 record of horses rated (OR) 135 or lower (1x placed)
    -0/12 record of horses that run fewer than 3 times that season
    -0/12 record of previous year's winner (3x placed)
    -0/12 record of previous year's placed horses (5x placed again)
    -0/12 record of horses trained by Nicky Henderson (0-0-14) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-0-25)
    -1/12 record of top weight (1x winner came from Cheltenham Gold Cup, 2x placed)
    -1/12 record of horses that carried 11-6 or more
    -1/12 record of horses that run in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race last time out
    -1/12 record of British bred (1x winner, 5x placed)
    -1/12 record of horses that previously won over National fences
    -2/12 record of horses wearing headgear (1x winner wearing blinkers, 1x winner wearing tongue strap) (record of placed horses: 3x wearing cheekpieces, 3x wearing tongue strap, 2x cheekpieces+tongue strap, 1x blinkers)
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  3. #2

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    Default

    is the only race i ever have a bet, betting on any horse race is a lottery, have seen a 1-6 fav lose in a 4 horse race.

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  5. #3
    Mrs Beefheart Guest

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    Just pick a name I like 😂

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    Using the trends and stats above I have narrowed down the field to the horses who match the profile. I've picked tenor nivernais in the comp so will have a dabble at 40/1. I'm also on Vicente. Trevor Hemmings bought the horse with this race in mind a couple of months ago and he has won the national 3 times in the last 10 years and with the king of the north, Brian Hughes booked looks sure to be well supported and to run a huge race for the champion trainer. Good luck if you have a bet

    3 Perfect Candidate (IRE) 11 5 Fergal O’Brien Paddy Brennan

    7 Wounded Warrior (IRE) 11-2 Noel Meade Sean Flanagan

    8 Wonderful Charm (FR) 11 2 Paul Nicholls Katie Walsh

    11 Tenor Nivernais (FR) 11 1 Venetia Williams Liam Treadwell

    13 Cause of Causes (USA) 10 13 Gordon Elliott intended runner

    14 The Young Master (GB) 10 13 Neil Mulholland Sam Waley-Cohen

    15 Regal Encore (IRE) 10-13 Anthony Honneyball intended runner

    19 Ucello Conti (FR) 10 12 Gordon Elliott Daryl Jacob

    26 Lord Windermere (IRE) 10 10 J. Culloty TBC

    28 Vicente (FR) 10 10 Paul Nicholls Brian Hughes

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  9. #5

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    You watch both of those horses form will have a U next to them on Sunday

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    Great work timbo, I'll be studying this post tonight to help me along with my choices. Cheers pal

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  13. #7

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    Nice 1 timbo, I did £40 over a few different horses EW. I had £5 EW on one for Arthur. I also had a horse in all 6 places paddy power were paying out on..

    Won £307 quid, so £267 profit😁
    Thanks for your info buddy definitely helped😁

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    after close scruteny of form using all my power of observation i backed vicente, was brought down first fence

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  17. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by happyjack View Post
    after close scruteny of form using all my power of observation i backed vicente, was brought down first fence
    Same here. Has £10.00ew 20/1 lol

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  19. #10

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    I had the third in saint are only because it was Pricewise. Well done everybody who backed One for Arthur was a very good race and somebody managed to back one for Arthur in running for 1000/1 not sure how much for. lucky bastard!!

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